NZ Trotting Cup day is always one of the greatest of the year in harness racing.
This year’s no different.
It’s a cracker of a card.
Here’s our take on every race on the program.
RACE 1 – SAUNDERS ROBINSON BROWN TROT 2600m
This race is an absolute raffle.
Call Me Trouble is probably the best performed square gaiter in the field, but has been living up to his name by galloping wildly at his last two starts. He can win, but gee you’d be brave to back back him.
Son of Patrick from the Barry Purdon has performed well through the seasons, and has been unlucky in recent runs. He’s a big chance here if things fall his way and everything goes right.
Harold Smith has a bit of class about him and is still improving. The slow getaway beat him last time out, so ignore that. He is right in the mix.
Masterly is the only 3YO in the field after the scratching of Highgrove, but just as with Akuta later in the Cup he is really 4 under the old system of seasons, so don’t get fooled by that. He has won 4 from 7, and looked to me as if he was driven as dead as a doornail last start to retain his rating so he would get the front row here, which means the stable has confidence in his chances. I do too. He’s my top pick.
Selections
- Masterly
- Son of Patrick
- Harold Smith
RACE 2 – HYDROFLOW CUP DAY MAIDEN PACE 1980m
Ohoka Le Bron makes his debut here for the Dalgety stable, but he has six trials in preparation, and at his most recent one last week he ran a close fourth from the death beaten just over a length behind top line 2YO’s Merlin and Seve.
That run was enormous, and good enough to win better races than this.
We will stand him one out here, and let you pick the other two for your trifecta,
Selection
- Ohoka Le Bron
RACE 3 – MITRE 10 HANDICAP TROT 3200m
Another tough race, as lower grade handicap trots always are.
Charlie P has been in great form recently, and has the advantage of Nathan Williamson’s recently acquired and quite mystical magic powers. He ran an excellent 2nd to the elite level trotter Muscle Mountain in the Cup day trials last week, beating home a trio of good ones in Highgrove, Chief of Staff and Hot To Trot, which is plenty good enough to win this. .
Streaming Live has been flying lately, winning four from her past five, and it would have been a picket fence too if she’d got cover instead of being exposed to the breeze over the long trip at Tuapeka two starts back. She’s in this up to her eyeballs.
Resolve has huge ability, but is a bastard of a horse who is very hard to catch. He’s a hope, despite having the handicap of Bob Butt in the cart.
Mark Jones mare Sioux Princess is almost old enough to vote, just like her trainer, but has been in good form and is a chance.
The Woodend Beach cuzzy bro’s Lurch and Bagrie need a scratching to get the reserve Excuse My French into the final field, but if they do then put him top of your bet sheet. The recent form might look crap, but it’s actually a whole lot better than it seems, and his 7th in the trial behind Muscle Mountain was too. If you want to see a horse driven to get a price at it’s next real race, have a look at this one. I smell a win coming.
Selections
- Excuse My French
- Charlie P
- Streaming Live
RACE 4 – GARRARD’S HORSE AND HOUND PACE 1980m
Speaking of cuzzy bro’s.
G’day uncle Chris.
Forgiven me yet?
Don’t bother, for I haven’t forgiven you.
Mum made me promise not to.
GAH-RAGHD my arse Mr GARR-ARD.
Pull the other one it jingles.
Selections
- Millwood Indie
- Dance Til Dawn
- The Coalman/Coachella
RACE 5 – ALABAR JUNIOR FREE FOR ALL (GROUP 3)
This is a great race that has been won by some wonderful horses over the years, including Royden Glen, Iraklis, Holmes DG, Yulestar, Young Rufus, Agua Caliente, Bella’s Boy, Auckland Reactor, Adore Me, Dream About Me, The Fixer, Ultimate Sniper and – if he wins the Cup to qualify – Krug, and only brevity demands that a whole lot of other winners are on the list too.
Only real good horses win this race, which makes Republican Party an absolute certainty to be this year’s champ.
This one seriously good horse, a Group 1 winner of the future for sure. He’s right up there with Akuta, and on levels terms is only about a half head shy, which is high praise indeed. If Cran Dalgety was a different type of trainer he’d be in the Cup, but that will be next year. This is his race for 2022.
The other 3YO in the race Sand Wave is a very smart pacer too. The inside of the 2nd row draw is against him, as he’s likely to get planted 4 back the fence, but plenty of winners have come from there and steamed up the long Addington straight over the years, so he might too.
One Change and Stylish Memphis are miles ahead of the rest on ratings, but both seem to have problems this campaign, and unless they get a bit of Woodend Beach shine I couldn’t come into either of them in this.
McAndrew Aviator is a sly chance off a soft sit.
Selections
- Republican Party
- Sand Wave
- McAndrew Aviator
RACE 6 – MARRISON AND BLOY MOBILE PACE 1980m
This is the time of day that you prove to the world that you are a disciplined punter by staying out.
Go and have lunch instead.
RACE 7 – NEVEL R FILLIES SERIES FINAL 1980M
The ways of the harness ninja are mysterious to everyone not carrying a surname of Purdon and the initials R, M, or P, so I will never claim to understand Mark Purdon’s training methods, or why so often his horses can look cactus during their preps and then suddenly rebound to spring to places better than they have been before, but we have all seen it before, and I think in True Fantasy we are about to see it again.
Last year’s NZ Filly of the Year looked a shot duck two starts back, when went just awful second up at odds-on at Addington, but her next run – her most recent – was outstanding, even in defeat. She was worked like the devil early by Rasmussen, and spent twice as much petrol as her stablemate Queen of Diamonds, who got the soft sit on her back and the sprint lane to win. She slipped a length, almost a length a half in front, but True Fantasy was coming back at her hard on the line and pulling ground with every stride.
I think she’s a bird to win this, and on her ear too.
Her fellow ‘Aussie’ Jean Fiess owned stablemate Queen of Diamonds is the obvious danger. She had a shaky start to her earlier career, but has really hit her straps since May, and become a very nice pacer. The inside of the 2nd draw is a bummer, and it almost certainly hands victory to True Fantasy, but if their starting spots were swapped it sure would be an interesting race.
It would be interesting to know Aussie Jean’s secret recipe for selecting yearlings too, for it’s even better than the Colonel’s secret herbs and spices. Have you ever seen any yearling buyer with a strike rate like hers? Jean is the Cardigan Bay of the NZ buying scene.
Fellow Australian harness racing enthusiast Dean Shannon has got a pretty damn good eye too.
His big game is a couple of races away, but his filly Miki Montana is going to get a good run through on the back of Monaco Grace at the start, and if the cards fall right with the speed she has got enough speed and class to come over and cause a boil over for sure.
Lady Of The Light never seems to have any luck with her draws, and this one wide on the back row will be hard to overcome, but don’t write her off, and Monaco Grace fits in the same box.
Failing horrendous luck or tragedy though, True Fantasy is a good thing.
Selections
- True Fantasy
- Montana Miki
- Lady of the Light
- Queen of Diamonds
Race 8 – HORNBY LIQUOR CENTRE (WORTHY QUEEN) HANDICAP TROT (GROUP 3) 2000m
The last big lead in to Friday’s 2 mile Group 1 Dominion Trot, and there no Sundees Sun.
That should make Bolt For Brilliance (BFB) a lay down misere, if it wasn’t for Mataderos and the unpredictable nature of Robert Dunn trained horses improving out of sight on the juice that doesn’t swab on big race days.
BFB is the best trotter in the field by miles.
It’s the 2nd best in the southern hemisphere, and maybe even the world.
The race was run against it last start, so ignore the 5 against it’s name, for it was actually a real good run.
I love this horse, and reckon that if races were run clean he’d be the best anywhere for sure.
But races aren’t run clean, not in NZ when believed to be powerful people have good horses in crooked stables, and so here we have Mataderos, the former average class Australian square gaiter who Robert Dunn turned into a four second under world record time trotter in just a few weeks, and smashed BFB by 10 lengths in the Dominon last year.
Mataderos is owned by world’s biggest hypocrite Jamie McKinnon, the Auckland Trot Club chairman who bemoans the lack of horses racing in the North and blames that in part for his club’s financial woes, while all the time racing his stable star exclusively in the South.
It’s almost exactly like having a President of the Coca-Cola company who drinks Pepsi, or a Hungry Jacks CEO who eats Big Macs, except they have still got their companies firing, whereas McKinnon and his man Croon have turned their clubs into dust.
Will Mataderos be on the gear?
Maybe, maybe not.
It depends on whether they are saving it up for Friday.
Can BFB beat him if he is?
On last year’s Dominion Handicap no, but Hypo’s horse doesn’t have stablemate Sundees Sun’s back to sit on here, so I reckon he can
Majestic Man is the obvious one for third, with Midnight Dash the other outside chance.
Oscar Bonavena has been going like a busted arse and has no chance.
He should be retired.
Selections
- Bolt For Brilliance
- Majestic Man
- Mataderos
- Midnight Dash
Race 9 – NZ SIRES STAKES SERIES FINAL (GROUP 1) 1980m
The Cup is going to be a great race, but this is going to be a classic.
It’s the best on the program, and in my view the race of the year.
All the stars of the future are on display here.
Merlin, Sherlock, Don’t Stop Dreaming (DSD), Alta Meteor, and Seve.
They are all going to win great races.
But can they win this one?
The draw has fallen Mark Purdon’s way, in a manner that defies the laws of statistical probability.
Purdon has six in the race, and somehow his best two have drawn 1-2 off the front, his next best ones have drawn 1-2-3 off the back, and the most ordinary of them – the one you could use as an attack dog if you didn’t mind a bit of team driving, and were minded that way – is in the peach spot for that sort of strategy out in 7.
Sherlock is considered the stable’s second stringer, but not by me: I reckon he is their best.
The draws and bad manners cost him at his first two outings when he was still extremely green, but since he learned a bit of ring craft and drew in closer at his most recent two starts Sherlock has been a different beast, and a real good one too.
His winning time of 1.55.9 two back at Addington is 1.9 seconds faster than favoured stablemate DSD’s, which translates to an extraordinary 25 metres, and at Ashburton last run he went 1.53.7, which is lightning fast even on a quick track.
He is the one they all have to beat.
DSD is drawn outside Sherlock in barrier two, and on my map will lead, with the other one on his back, although not everyone agrees.
This horse won his first 4 in a row, and then got beaten by Merlin when he sat outside him.
It was a huge run, but I have niggling doubts about whether he has the high speed when its needed to win this.
Of course Mark might may me look a fool, and he has plenty of times before.
Still, DSD is not in my top 2.
The other 4 runners are either stalkers (the one in the 7), or good and honest horses who are a length or two off the best ones, and will be looking to sit 3, 4 and 5 back on the rail in the hope of sliding into some money.
Son of Mac is the wildcard, a horse that good judges of my acquaintance regard very highly indeed.
He looked unlikely to make the field a fortnight ago after trainer Kyle Marshall elected to trod a very unusual path to qualification, but the Cambride trainer has struck the right luck and turned out to be a genius.
This horse’s fate depends on whether he can fly off the arm and lead.
He has real high speed so he might, and if that happens he is smack band right in the game.
But my own view is that the Purdons will hold him out and post him, and that will be the end of the section.
On that basis I will leave him out and let him wait for next time, but if I am wrong about the start he may cause a boilover.
Alta Meteor is super good, but the 4 draw is no help at all. If he flukes a soft run in the line off a hot speed he can win, there is no doubt about that, but gee things are really going to have to fall his way for that to happen. They might, but even if they do he still has a monster to slay.
Seve is super consistent and a real smart youngster, but the outside of the front row draw looks to have cruelled his chances.
One left.
The colt I declared a champion before it’s first race, and who I have called a champion every day since.
The Wizard.
Merlin.
8 starts, 8 wins.
The first 7 against the best that the north could produce, the most recent against the no 1 contender from the South.
It is an extraordinary record for a juvenile, especially one that started from the extreme outside in 4 of them, and has never drawn closer in than gate 5.
The Dean Shannon owned, Barry Purdon trained, Zac Butcher driven superstar is going to have to do it again to win this, and he will have to create history at the same time, for no horse has ever won the Sires from his horror outside of the second row draw.
But no horse as good as Merlin has ever started from it either.
As I keep telling you and everyone else who will listen, this horse is a freak, a once in a decade star.
Don’t be fooled by his lack of a big winning margin, for Merlin doesn’t want them.
He wants to race close to his rivals, and hold back then surge, just t show the others how good is he by beating them, very much like Gammalite and the gallopers Northerly and the Big O Octagonal did.
Merlin is a winner, the consummate winner.
He will win this too, and wherever he lands it doesn’t matter.
No-one is going to beat the Big M.
He won’t let them.
Just get on.
Selections
- Merlin
- Sherlock
- Alta Meteor
Next up, the last four races.
Including the Cup.