The art of winning at the trots is knocking the favourite out, and taking the second fave with it if you can.
Do that and a world of possibilities open up for those from the dodgy and dishonest milieu, the Denis Holbeck’s and that type of the world.
With one fave out you can lay it, back a couple around it, have trifectas, exactas, quinellas and First 4’s with it out of the top 3 business, or even load up a quaddie without it in.
If you can knock out both faves then its double the fun, and happy days, as long as you are in in the joke. It’s only a rort if you are not in it they say.
That’s not my style though.
I like my racing hard, clean, fair and true.
So I try to bust open rorts by telling people about them, just as a group of brave souls have busted open pedophilia by talking about it at the Royal Commission, and a bunch of equally brave birds have come out and said #metoo, and now all the victims of both child abuse and adult sexual abuse realise they’re not alone, and there is no shame, and now they are all starting to talk about it too.
If we all keep talking, and drag these crimes out of the darkness by doing so, then its a better than fair bet that before too long these abuses will stop happening, because the perpetrators will know that their victim is going to be empowered enough to tell, and no criminal other than desperate junkies or the insane want that.
It’s the same with race rorts, which I regard as crimes too.
Honest punters put their money on a horse in good faith, expecting the race to be run true to form, and then someone comes along and does something to make sure that the poor mug’s pony can’t win, or that the someone’s horse can.
It’s theft, every day of the week, but not very much ever gets done about it.
There’s a number of reasons for that – kickbacks, favours, corrupt officials, switched swabs, stewards looking the other way; the list goes on – but for me the main one is almost certainly because not many punters, even the experienced ones, really know how to spot a rort.
So I’m going to teach you, and this day 1 Grade , and we’re going to learn the old tank the leader with a bowler and kill the one behind it too trick.
This is how it works.
You wait for a race where one of the two horses at the top of the betting market is going to lead, and the other fave is going to sit on its back.
Here is the perfect example.
Race 1 Albion Park, 31 January 2020.
Killara Kaos is the fave at $1.65, and it’s drawn in the 1.
Colombian Gold drawn in 3 is the 2nd favourite, at a price of $5.50.
Both are natural leaders who have high acceleration off the gate, and the horse drawn in the 2 isn’t. Nothing drawn outside of that three are quick enough to get across, so the faves will both quickly get across to the 1-2 positions, and more likely than not the odds on pop drawn the 1 will allow the 2nd fave to cross it after making it work for a couple of hundred metres to soften it up. It will then pop onto its back for the soft sit, and slingshot up its inside on the sprint lane down the straight.
What you have to do to knock them out is put a bowler (stalking horse/attack dog) in the death seat, attack the leader like a demon, make it run its first three quarters faster than it is able to do and still have something left for the run home, and – if possible – sink it before the home turn, so that it falls back on the other favourite tucked in directly behind.
Two birds, one stone.
What you have to do is your form, so you know how fast the 2 faves can run over a mile, and make sure your bowler runs them fast enough for that first 1200 metres to tank them, so that the one or ones you want to win can steam home over the top.
Here’s a simple example.
Horsie Morsie can run 2 minutes for a mile, but no quicker.
That breaks down – if run at even time, which races aren’t – to 4 quarter mile (400m) sectionals of 30 seconds.
If you can make the horse run the first three of those sectionals in 28 seconds however, then the fastest it will be able to run its last 400 metres in to reach its peak time of 2 minutes is 36 seconds.
And – without boring you with the physics and logic of why, just trust me on this, I do it for a living – that is not fast enough to win any race.
Easy isn’t it?
All you have to do is find your bowler, and make sure its driven by a bloke who doesn’t mind breaking the rules, and has no problem with not trying.
The ideal is a roughie, a long-priced horse in the market, because if you use him then the third fave can be your sit ping and back horse, and the roughie is a defo to drop out with the faves, and thus can’t fluke a place and stuff up your exotics.
Back to our example.
The odds on fave Killara Kaos is the one in the white with the brown checks on the inside, the 2nd fave Colombian Gold is the horse two outside it in the purple.
They will do exactly as our form study predicted.
The 1 will go to the lead, and the 3 will cross it.
The 1’s fastest time is 1.53.6, but that was run on a slightly bigger and faster track than this one here, so add 0.5 of second onto it and the quickest it will go is about 1.54.1.
(Trot times are expressed in minutes.seconds.tenths of seconds)
The 2nd favourite’s best time is 1.53.9, which means that they are about equal in speed and ability, and who beats who will come down to how the race is run. All things being fair and equal though, they will finish 1-2, because once they get to the lead no rival will attack them and they will be able to dictate the pace.
But all things are not fair and equal, because we’re pulling the old knock out the fave and the one on its back trick.
To pull it off we need to make sure that the race is run in sub 1.54.0 seconds, because neither of them can run that fast.
That means we need to make sure the first three quarter mile sectionals are run in 28.5 seconds or better on average, or 1.25.5 all up. If we do that, we sink them.
Enter our bowler, and it is the one in the orange and green, drawn in position 4 outside of Colombian Gold, trained by Ron Sallis and driven by Matt Elkins (gee don’t those surnames sound familiar?)
Courageous Leo is the bowler’s name, and it’s an old camel who has never before now run faster than 1.55.7 for the mile in its life. That’s why it is 100-1 in the betting, It won’t tonight either, but it will die trying, and kill the favourite pair along the way too.
As you are doing so keep one eye on the sectional time clock in the top right hand corner.
The bowler attacks, and attacks, and attacks, and just keeps on attacking until it collapses on before the turn and drops out to run a long last.
Its driver has given it absolutely no chance of winning or running a place, but that doesn’t matter, because it has tanked the favourites too.
With the bowler attacking, they have run the first three quarters in 1.24.3.
1.25.5 was our benchmark.
Courageous Leo has made the favourites run 1.2 seconds faster.
They can’t win.
It’s as easy as that.
And that my friends is the basic tenet of hooking a trot race, and once you understand and can apply it to form study, it is your first step to a life on the professional put and financial freedom.
It took me more than 30 years to work it out, but that’s because rorting is just another form of abuse, and no one talked about it, so I didn’t learn.
We’re talking about it now though, and ain’t that just grand.