All the self-proclaimed racing experts like the soon to be unemployed Nathan Exelby are talking about the wrong horse in Saturday’s Group 1 J.J. Atkins at Eagle Farm.
Isotope can’t win, and neither can Rothfire.
They’ve both always been a huge risk at the 1400 metre distance, and now they’ve drawn wide the pair are cactus.
They have to go forward from the barrier to try to secure a position before the first turn, they have no choice, so the first two two furlongs until they hit the bend are going to be run at a frenetic pace, and it will do the duo in.
The winner is sitting out the back.
If he settles, there is a fair chance it will be Trent and Toby Edmonds horse Wisdom of Water, but barrier 10 means that his rider Robbie Fradd will first have to take him forward before easing and trying to get him back on the bit, and whilst it’s certainly not unachievable for a jockey of Fradd’s skill, it won’t be any easy task.
The Snowden’s horse Wild Ruler is in all sorts from the 15 draw. He has to go back, but that’s not his racing style, so he’s going to have to try something new if he’s to win it.
Macroura is unbeaten and is an excitement machine, and the 2 alley gives Ciaron Maher’s little girl all the favours, but history says that this isn’t a filly’s race, and she has to handle a furlong and a half jump in distance, which is no easy task ever, and never is in a Group 1.
On top of that, Macroura has never run on anything but a wet track, and with no rain forecast by the admittedly notoriously unreliable Bureau of Meteorology, it looks at this stage almost certain to be a dry track at Eagle Farm on Saturday, which puts even one more cat in among Sideshow Bob’s pigeons.
Her sectionals are sensational, but I reckon that the ME team is just taking a shy at the stumps due to the reduction in distance of the race, and you can have her.
Not An Option is a high quality Kiwi galloper who will go on to do plenty, but he’s first-up for 7 weeks over 7 furlongs in a Group 1, and when’s the last time you’ve seen a 2-year-old do that?
Given that he’s a son of the super-sire Not a Single Doubt it’s understandable that the connections would have a crack, but you can have him too.
Chris Waller has been picking off this race for a decade now, and he has three in it, but the only one that was a chance was Overlord, and it’s drawn the car park and has Boris Thornton on board, so for mine you can draw a line through it as well.
My mate Dean’s horse Way Beyond is there, but it would need a Counter Meal style miracle to win a race of this quality.
It’s Stuart Kendrick trained stablemate Superare is a promising youngster, but is probably biting off a bit more than it can chew at this stage of its career, and Starosa just isn’t good enough.
The Edmonds second-stringer The Drinks Cart is jumping from 900 to 1100 to the 1400 of this race, and that’s no recipe for Group 1 success.
Waller’s other two Saffiano and Spokesman form lines say that they’re not up to this, and Van Dyke and O’Dea’s runners say the same.
So then there are two.
Two weeks ago after it put in a shocker behind Wisdom of Water I thought that Minjee was gone, but somehow in amongst all his shrieking about integrity, this filly’s trainer Robert Heathcote seems to have managed to bring her back. Forget the 7 against her name last time out and take a look at the replay – her run was a cracker.
But she’s a she, and she’s drawn 20, and she’s stepping up from 1110 to 1400 in a week, so if Heathcote can pull this off I will personally offer to kiss his arse and wipe it too. The fifty each way David Fowler has had on it pre-post at $26 is the death knell anyway.
So then were was one, and he is the one.
Maggie’s pretty little colt Thunder Mania.
He’ll just stroll out from the 7 draw and be sitting back in the field one off the fence smoking his pipe while he watches the early fireworks unfold, and then in the straight Sunline and Winx’s early jockey Larry Cassidy will pull him to the outside, and at the 250 he will just go boom, crash, bang!
We will gather them in late on Saturday said Larry this morning after Thunder’s trial – and win.
And that my friends is exactly how the J.J. Atkins will unfold.
You can still get $21 about Thunder Mania in certain circles.
Anyone who doesn’t snap it up is a mug.