Well it’s not often that I come out and declare a double figure shot a good thing in a Group 1 race, but there is a first time for everything, and to celebrate the occasion I am going to do it twice.
Thunder Mania will win the J.J. Atkins at $17. That goes without saying. I’ve raved about Thunder before, and I will again, more than once, but today I want to talk to you about Kementari.
It is a certainty to win the StraddieKementari is a certainty in the Straddie at $15.
James Cummings has inherited all of his grandfather Bart’s guile, and he is truly a master trainer, even at this young age. The Sheik doesn’t employ duds.
Trekking is only there to push the weights up.
It’s got 58kg and Kementari only has 55.5.
The last time they met they had 60kg each, and Kementari was second-up after a year off the track. The margin between them that day was 1.3 lengths – the equivalent of less than a kilogram – and the big K was only running to get fit.
The two and a half keg differential in the Straddie equals about 3.5 – 4 lengths, and on Saturday next week Kementari will be hitting its peak, whereas Trekking is already there.
Kementari is a 1400 metre horse through and through, and is 2 for 2 over the journey and has won over a mile.
Trekking won the Straddie at his only attempt over 1400, but he was flattered by the weights and the way that the race was run, and is a million to one of winning this year with 58 on his back.
A bunch of people are spruiking Niccanova,
It couldn’t win the Mackay Newmarket, or beat Scallopini in the Sunshine Coast Cup.
How the hell is it going to beat Kementari with only 2.5 kilos start?
Let me remind you quickly that Kementari has beaten Pierata and Trapeze Artist twice at set weights, and ran Winx to a length and half at weight for age.
It ran second in the Caulfield Guineas and the Memsie, third in the George Ryder and the Manikato, and fourth in the Makybe Diva, the Run to the Roses, and the Winx, all while carrying equal weights against horses who have ten lengths on anything in this year’s Straddie field.
And here we have a bunch of cats like Vega One, Ranier and Tyzone ahead of Kementari in the early betting, and a three-year-old in the shape of Dawn Passage – who hasn’t even qualified, and has to run and win a week before the Grand Final even to get there – sitting third in the market, and a Country Championship ‘champion’ in the form of Victorem second favourite, when its only giving a Group 1 winner like Kementari a paltry three kilos.
Kementari is an absolute living certainty to win the Straddie, and the $15 on offer right now is a gift from heaven.
Ryan Maloney doesn’t stick like glue to duds.
Take the tip.
Get on now.